NEWSLETTER: EV Charging Infrastructure for Canada

Canada’s transportation sector was responsible for 22% of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, making it one of the most significant contributors to national carbon output. Reducing those emissions hinges on a rapid, large-scale transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). To support that transition, the federal government has set legally binding sales targets: 100% of new light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales must be zero-emission by 2035, with analogous targets for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) by 2040 where feasible. The Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, published in December 2023, gives regulatory teeth to the LDV target beginning in 2026.

A transition of this magnitude requires not just vehicles but infrastructure. Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) commissioned Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors, working alongside the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), to produce a comprehensive update to its 2022 charging infrastructure needs study. The result, submitted in February 2024 and publicly released in July 2024, is the most detailed Canadian forecast to date. It extends the study horizon to 2040 (shortened from 2050 in the prior study to sharpen near-term forecasting), incorporates medium and heavy-duty vehicles for the first time, provides province- and region-specific estimates, and introduces assessments of electricity grid impacts and the capital costs of building out the required infrastructure.

The number of zero-emission LDVs on Canadian roads is projected to grow from approximately 480,000 at the time of the study to 5 million by 2030, and 21 million by 2040. To service that fleet under the baseline (high home charging access) scenario, Canada will need approximately 679,000 public charging ports by 2040 a ratio of one port for every 31 EVs. Reaching that target requires installing an average of 40,000 new public ports every year from 2025 to 2040, on top of the roughly 30,000 ports already available or planned at the time of publication.

Public charging needs span two types: Level 2 (L2) AC chargers, which are slower but far more numerous and suitable for workplaces, parking facilities, and community locations; and DC fast chargers (DCFC), which are faster, fewer in number, but critical for highway corridors and time-sensitive top-ups. By 2040, DCFC ports grow in average power from 125 kW per port in 2025 to 300 kW, reflecting the increasing energy needs of newer, larger-battery vehicles.

The report identifies multi-family residential housing as a critical bottleneck. Most EV owners charge primarily at home, but apartment and condominium residents cannot do so without building-level electrical upgrades. The baseline scenario assumes that governments and building owners retrofit 1.6 million parking spaces in multi-family buildings by 2030 (covering 30% of units in existence today), rising to 3.2 million by 2035 (60% of existing units), while policy simultaneously requires all new housing to be EV-ready beginning in 2030. Without these retrofits, the demand on public charging networks would be substantially higher: a “low home charging access” scenario increases total public port requirements by 116,800 or about 23% more than the baseline, driven by residents who cannot charge at home and must rely entirely on public infrastructure.

For the first time, the 2024 study quantifies MHDV charging needs. Under the federal policy reference scenario, the zero-emission MHDV fleet grows to 414,000 vehicles by 2030 and 2.4 million by 2040. Because the MHDV market is essentially at ground zero for electrification today, public charging demand in this segment starts near zero but grows rapidly: 41,000 public MHDV charging ports will be needed by 2030, expanding to 120,000 by 2035 and 275,000 by 2040.

Private and fleet depot charging, overnight charging at trucking yards, opportunity charging at warehouses and distribution hubs will play an equally essential role, particularly in the early adoption phase. The study projects that private MHDV charging will require 217,000 ports by 2030 and more than 1.1 million by 2040. Heavier vehicles need higher-power chargers, and the lead times involved in grid upgrades for large MHDV charging hubs, potentially up to 10 years, mean that planning and investment must begin now, well ahead of the vehicles’ arrival in significant numbers.

The study also models an alternate hydrogen scenario, in which hydrogen fuel costs fall to competitive levels and a share of the heavy-duty fleet opts for fuel cell or hydrogen combustion rather than battery electric propulsion. Under this scenario, battery electric MHDV charging demand is reduced, though the study does not attempt to forecast hydrogen refuelling infrastructure needs separately.

Deploying this charging network will demand enormous capital, covering equipment, installation, and local electrical work. For light-duty vehicles, the cumulative capital cost of public charging infrastructure to 2040 is estimated at nearly $18 billion. DCFC ports, despite representing only about 7% of the total number of ports, account for 64% of LDV charging capital costs due to their high per-port power requirements and equipment expense. LDV capital spending is relatively steady, running at approximately $1 billion per year throughout the study period.

For medium and heavy-duty vehicles, the capital requirements are substantially larger on a per-port basis heavier vehicles carry bigger batteries and require more powerful charging equipment. Cumulative public MHDV charging capital costs reach $47 billion by 2040. Annual MHDV spending accelerates sharply: from $340 million in 2025, to more than $1.7 billion by 2030, and $6.4 billion by 2040.

The combined total public charging capital requirement across all vehicle segments is therefore approximately $65 billion by 2040. The report notes that public funds will need to catalyse private investment rather than carry this burden alone. The federal government’s Zero-Emissions Vehicle Infrastructure Program (ZEVIP), which covers up to 50% of capital costs, and its predecessor EVAFIDI, which leveraged $2 of private capital for every $1 of public funding, are cited as models. Quebec’s commitment of $514 million to add 116,700 chargers to its provincial network is highlighted as an example of the scale of provincial commitment required.

Canada’s charging infrastructure needs are heavily concentrated geographically. Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta together are projected to account for 84% of public LDV ports and 92% of public MHDV ports by 2040, owing to their larger populations and higher vehicle ownership rates.

Within urban centres, the scale of need is striking. The Toronto metropolitan region alone is projected to require 167,000 public charging ports by 2040 more than any entire province outside Ontario plus over 1.6 million EV-ready retrofits in multi-family buildings.

The report explicitly flags a critical equity concern:

A recent federal audit found that 87% of government-funded charging ports are concentrated in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, leaving rural, remote, Indigenous, and lower-income communities significantly underserved.

The report stresses that future network expansion must address these gaps both as a matter of fairness and of practical necessity: highway corridor charging in remote regions is essential to reduce range anxiety and enable adoption beyond major urban centres. For long-haul heavy-duty trucks specifically, a connected national highway charging network is described as indispensable gaps in one province can impede adoption across the country.

The electrification of the vehicle fleet will place unprecedented new demands on Canada’s electricity system. The report estimates that combined LDV and MHDV charging will add approximately 4,300 MW of electricity demand by 2030, growing to 22,500 MW by 2040, a load equivalent to adding several large provinces’ worth of electricity consumption.

The cost of the generation, transmission, and distribution upgrades required to serve this demand is estimated in a wide range: $26 billion to $294 billion, with a mid-range estimate of $94 billion, over the 2025 to 2040 period. The breadth of this range reflects significant uncertainty in how charging patterns will evolve and how different regions will respond. On a per-vehicle basis, grid upgrade costs work out to $3,000 per light-duty EV and $17,000 per medium or heavy-duty zero-emission vehicle.

To place these figures in context, Canadians spent approximately $70 billion on gasoline in 2022 alone. As the vehicle fleet electrifies, electric utilities will capture a share of that revenue stream, potentially helping to finance the necessary grid upgrades. The report also highlights managed or smart charging the strategic shifting of EV charging from peak demand periods to off-peak windows as one of the most cost-effective tools for reducing grid stress. Utilities that implement managed charging at scale could significantly reduce the need for costly new generation and transmission capacity. The report also discusses the potential for EVs to serve as distributed energy resources (DERs), providing behind-the-meter battery storage services back to the grid when demand peaks, further strengthening grid resilience.

Utilities and system operators consulted during the study confirmed that Canada’s ZEV sales targets are technically feasible, but emphasized that federal policy certainty in the form of the EV Availability Standard and ZEV sales mandates is essential for enabling the long-term infrastructure planning and investment that grid modernization requires.

The report stresses that charging infrastructure needs are not fixed they are shaped by policy choices. Under a scenario where Canadians drive 25% fewer kilometres (enabled by investment in public transit, active transportation, and denser urban planning), the number of public LDV ports required falls by 58,000 in 2030 and 168,000 in 2040 compared to the baseline. Higher charger utilization rates and faster average charging power could reduce public port requirements by a further 25,000 ports, as each port serves more vehicles in the same time.

Conversely, a scenario combining low home charging access, lower network reliability, and slower charging power deployment could require 153,000 more public ports, a 23% increase over the baseline, underscoring how important it is to address multi-family building retrofits and network reliability proactively.

The report recommends a mix of regulatory tools (updates to building and electrical codes), financial incentives, and managed charging strategies to steer outcomes toward the more efficient end of the range.

Canada faces an enormous, urgent, and complex infrastructure challenge. The scale of public charging deployment required 679,000 LDV ports and 275,000 MHDV ports by 2040, supported by $65 billion in charging capital and up to $94 billion (mid-estimate) in grid upgrades dwarfs anything previously undertaken in the country’s transportation history. The window for orderly, cost-effective planning is closing fast, particularly for the heavy-duty sector, where grid upgrade lead times of up to a decade mean decisions made today will determine whether trucks can charge in the 2030s.

The report calls for coordinated action by all levels of government, utilities, and private investors, with particular attention to equity for underserved communities, smart grid management, and building-level EV readiness as the foundations on which a successful electric vehicle future must be built.